One of these things is not like the other

See David Friedman’s blog and this Overcoming Bias post for the context.

My thoughts:

The second hypothesis set could trivially fit the data by repeating it and making random predictions for the future.

Random predictions are unlikely to be correct.  The first set has made correct predictions — this weakens the potential that it fit by chance.

The potential of the first set being trivially right is more excludable than the potential of the second being trivial.  The first is better.

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